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Easiest thing to forget when trying to outsmart your opponent. That your opponent might be/is just as smart as you. Which means when they make a plan you need to plan for the opposite of what they plan, unless they already knew you'd do that...that's all I'm saying on that tired old joke.
Don't worry though Mack, an explanation for HOW she is beating you is on the way...
This is why you don't use the obvious or smart plan, you pick the "That might be crazy enough to work, or kill us all in a giant fireball" plan
That's what I usually do! After all, what's the point of a game without stupid crazy risk? Emphasis on crazy.